Mathematicalmodelling the specific risk of forest land management

The formulation and experimental testing the mathematical model of a forest land management risk under conditions of a random occurrence of natural hazards. Risk is described on the analysis of the time series of the observed occurrence of planned and random timber extraction volumes as well as the increment of growing stock within the period of 1995-2014. Specific risk is assumed as the Brownian motion of the current annual increment of timber from the volume of observed extraction during the assumed mean rotation period. Risk will be included in the econometric model of forestry formulated according to the time series of a common forestry account for the same period.The results of a model will serve for the formulation of adaptation measures to climate extremes.