Mathematical modeling the forest insurance to the risk induced by a climate change

The objective of a submitted project is the proposal and testing the model of forest property insurance under conditions of comprehensive risk concerning the occurrence of climate extremes. The formulation of the insurance model will be based on the description of the risk of forest stands destruction by particular natural hazards calculated as the product of probability of a detrimental event occurrence and the vulnerability of a forest stands under given conditions. The economic analysis of forestry projects at growing particular commercial tree-species. A valuation of forest property for the purposes of insurance will be carried out by using the single tree growth simulator SIBYLA. The risk-free capital value of forest land at growing particular tree-species will be calculated by the theory of Markov chains. One of the expected results of the project is the proposal of the forestry insurance guarantee fund that should to contribute to strengthening the financial stability of forest enterprises in Slovakia.